The 2024 NHL Offseason decided to hit the ground running Wednesday afternoon, and to say the headlining move came out of left field is an understatement.
Before the 2023-24 season has even come to a close, the 2016 3rd overall pick Pierre-Luc Dubois has been shipped to his fourth team in the last five years in a deal that sends him to the Washington Capitals for goalie Darcy Kuemper.
The head-scratching, one-for-one move did not even come with retained salaries, as the Capitals will be taking on the brunt of Dubois’ $8.5 million AAV cap hit while only getting $5.25 million in relief.
While the per-year value of the deal is not necessarily the glaring point of the deal, the years of commitment are. Dubois is going to be entering year two of his 8-year, $68 million contract this upcoming season, meaning he is on the books in Washington until 2031.
That’s quite a sum of change for the Capitals to bring in on one player, who in year one of the deal was forcing Kings GM Rob Blake to fend rumors off regarding a potential buyout.
In summary, Dubois was the centerpiece of another high-AAV trade in 2021 when the Columbus Blue Jackets shipped the Quebec native to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine.
After joining the Jets, Dubois took another step up offensively after being put on the power play unit, compiling 143 points in 195 games. While the 24-year-old was ascending to a top-winger role, he was also ascending to a substantial payday.
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And while it seemed clear that the Jets were willing to pay Dubois to stay north of the border, Dubois was more interested in testing the market after the final year of his rookie deal. Instead of holding onto their asset for one final season, the Jets traded Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings in a blockbuster, sign-and-trade deal that sent Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, and Gabriel Vilardi and a draft pick to Winnipeg.
The Kings followed the trade with the 8-year deal, which only led to one underwhelming season with Dubois in the black and silver. With career lows in goals (16) and assists (24), the Kings immediately moved on from the left winger, showing their lack of faith in Dubois was even less than publicly known at the time.
So, despite his trade value being by far the lowest of his career, the Kings thought it was best to move on from Dubois.
The same sentiment can be made for the returning piece coming from Washington, as Kuemper went from starting goaltender for the Capitals to backup, then eventually shipped out of town.
The former 6th-round pick joined the Caps as a free agent signing in 2022, signing a 5-year, $26.25 million contract.
Kuemper was on top of the world after finishing his 2021-22 campaign with a .921 save percentage and 2.54 goals against average in 57 games for the Stanley Cup Champion Avalanche. He earned the $5.25 million AAV contract after his postseason run and stretch of play from 2017 on.
However, his first two years in Washington were a steady decline from his previous line of success, and the later three years of his contract coming after he turned 34 years old did not instill a lot of confidence in the Capitals’ decision-makers.
The nail in the coffin for Kuemper’s time in DC was the impressive play of Charlie Lindgren, who took the starting role by posting a league-leading 6 shutouts and a .911 save percentage in 50 games, leading Washington to the last spot in the playoffs.
So with next year’s starter on the books (at just $1.1 million in comparison to Kuemper), and two promising goaltenders Hunter Shepard and Clay Stevenson waiting in the Minors for the Capitals, the deal to take a flier on Dubois’ upside from a position of depth was a no brainer for Brian MacLellan.
As previously mentioned, Dubois is still early in his hockey journey. While it has been an up-and-down experience, the 6-4, 225lb winger has a multitude of abilities to transcend an offensive attack, and if in the right system could lead the Capitals in points by the end of next season.
Especially coupled with the veteran leadership of Ovechkin, Oshie, and Wilson, this stop could be the most promising of Dubois’ career.
Plus, with the $9.2 million AAV expected for Nicklas Backstrom likely not to impact the cap in 2024-25 (due to an assumed LTIR trip for the majority of the year), the Capitals do now have the money to spend.
For Los Angeles however, the decision is not as clear. The Kings have desperately needed goaltending for several years now, as they continue to stall in a middle ground of reaching the postseason but failing to escape the first round.
There were three goalies used last season in Hollywood, and between Cam Talbot and David Rittich who received a majority of the work, the numbers were better than most anticipated.
The playoffs were a different story, as the two split the five games against Edmonton, only to combine for a .864 save percentage and 21 goals allowed.
In summary, the details of this trade did take a while to understand for most of the hockey world, and it seems like the Capitals gave themselves a chance to significantly upgrade their top lines for a player they may have considered putting on waivers.
However, with the volatility of the goaltending position, it would not be a surprise for Kuemper to fit right in Los Angeles and revitalize his career, all for the price of a player the Kings were potentially going to let walk after one season.
For Dubois and Kuemper, it is a change of scenery and new opportunity, which especially in hockey could be all that is missing for the two Canadians.
